What is it?

Retail Intelligence Platform that gives you the best understanding of when customers are most likely to buy the products that you sell. Purchase Predictor maximises your sales and transforms your decision making, through a deep understanding of Customer Purchase Intent. The Retail Intelligence Platform enables you to:

  • Review thousands of your products to identify the one which will grow your sales the most
  • Forecast the size of your customer events and allocate your budget to gain the greatest returns
  • Predict seasonal trends in your categories to uncover new journeys and missions in your market
  • Size your sales opportunities to pinpoint your revenue left on the table – “sales headroom”

Who is it for?

Marketeers, category managers or anyone looking to drive retail growth!

Marketing and Customer Teams

Maximise the return from your marketing spend by using Purchase Predictor to pinpoint when there are the most customers in the market ready to buy the products you sell.

Click here to see what’s driving growth in the garden and outdoor category this Spring »

The BBQ and outdoor eating category are highly seasonal, with a sharp rise in Customer Purchase Intent between February and April worth £3.3M per week in market growth.

Using Purchase Predictor retailers can identify the exact product mix and distinct customer missions happening in their categories, pinpointing the exact date when Customer Purchase Intent starts to grow (10th February), the size / speed of the growth (10.3% avg. growth per week) as well as the impact of key trading events such as Easter and Bank holidays. Even more valuable are the insights which highlight which sub-groups and products are driving the growth and at which point in the season.

Using Purchase Predictor we can identify:

  • Demand for key products within the ‘BBQ’ and ‘Alfresco Dining’ mission grows by 319% between the beginning of February and end of May
  • ‘Gazebos & Parasols’ are the most important with the largest share of Customer Purchase Intent (35% of the category) in the run up to Easter
  • ‘BBQ’ growth accelerates after Easter, with the fastest growth rate (+36%) into Mayday Bank Holiday replacing ‘Gazebos & Parasols’ as the category with the largest share of Customer Purchase Intent in the category (34%)

This shows how quickly customer priorities can change, and marketeers must adapt to these changes if you’re to grow sales and win market share. Purchase Predictor even enables you to drill down to a product level to understand the growth in Customer Purchase Intent likely around key events.

Commercial or Category

Optimise your category sales and gross margin by using Purchase Predictor to prioritise product placement and promotion to achieve greatest category profitability.

Click here to see if Spring clean is still an important mission for the cleaning category »

Yes – we forecast a 5-7% growth in Customer Purchase Intent (worth £100m to the UK cleaning market). The Customer Purchase Intent spikes across two key missions;

  1. The “Make it Sparkle” mission peaking in February (week commencing 10th), including floors, windows and upholstery cleaning equipment
  2. The “Deep Clean” mission peaking in April week (week commencing 14th), including carpets, furniture & appliances

With this insight retailers can better time promotions, giving customers the best offers, when they most want them; and maximise sales from featured space by placing the most in demand items at front of store and on gondola ends (and online equivalents). Category managers can go one step further using Summit’s ‘headroom methodology’ pinpointing category revenues left on the table during last year’s trading. This will help in building a business case for budgeting.

As you can see in this case study – revenue is at its lowest point for products included in the ‘Make it Sparkle’ mission when Customer Purchase Intent is at its highest. Based on proprietary methodologies we have been able to calculate that the retailer should have yielded £165K more sales in the week commencing 9th February, with even more revenue left on the table week commencing 24th February. It’s a slightly different story for the ‘Deep Clean’ mission, where the retailer is doing a good job driving sales during the April peak in Customer Purchase Intent but has missed a golden opportunity to drive sales week commencing 17th February.

In a very practical way, the headroom calculation enables retailers to see the amount of money they have left on the table in each category in each week. Therefore, Purchase Predictor enables categories to identify the one week where it will be easiest to drive incremental sales. To capture this headroom, the category manager could:

  • Run a multibuy promotion on household cleaning products from week commencing 10th February, with support in a weekly flyer or circular
  • Utilise seasonal space with specialist cleaning products in February and early April

Who’s using it now?

Summit are great partners to work with. The insight platform is now totally embedded in our approach to planning and provides us with actionable insight that enables us to make decisions and grow our business.

Philipp Juenemann, Director of Specialbuys Programme – Aldi Süd

Why Purchase Predictor?

Purchase Predictor supports evidence-based decisions – sizes and quantifies products, categories, missions and events so you can select only the most profitable investments.

Purchase Predictor is practical – in very simple, logical ways it tells you how much money you should be making tomorrow, next week, next month, in all of your categories, which means it starts to pay back instantly.

Purchase Predictor is instantaneous – the platform can be switched on (and trialled) at the touch of a button. If you want to complement the insights with your own sales data (enabling the headroom calculations), this can be added within 48 hours. Purchase Predictor has been designed with retailers, for retailers, so they no longer have to repeat last year’s sales plan or rely on ‘gut feel’ when planning for growth. All seasonal behaviours have been predicted and quantified and are ready for you to start planning with now.

If you want to know more about the science behind Purchase Predictor, then please click here »

The Science behind Purchase Predictor

Purchase Predictor makes it easy for retailers to plan promotions more effectively and maximise profits. But behind the simplicity of the platform, there’s a world of complicated data science powering the insights. Processing and analysing millions of data points across 40,000+ products, in more than 10,000 categories, the platform uses machine learning to identify and cluster customer behaviour patterns. Digital fingerprints are also analysed to understand Customer Purchase Intent. This data is then used to predict future behaviour through a Bayesian statistical modelling system. Purchase Predictor decomposes data in order to identify long-term trends, underlying seasonality and the effects of key marketing dates or events. This enables the platform to forecast behaviour and demand up to three years out, using linear regression analysis to understand areas of growth and decline. The platform’s recommender engine is able to identify the most appropriate activity and focus product categories for each week. Taking the retailer’s last year of sales data, the engine identifies incremental sales revenue opportunity using headroom analysis based on trends and customer behaviour. Crucially, this is used to provide a monetary value on the identified potential sales opportunity, allowing retailers to make planning decisions backed by statistics.


Isabel Harrison-Hall
Want to find out more? Speak to...
Isabel Harrison-Hall | Performance Consulting Director